For the Future of Farming

Commodity Market Report 6th June 2019

Currency

The ongoing saga around UK politics seems to have left Sterling relatively unchanged over the past week with it currently around U.S. $1.27 and Euro 1.13 which is towards the lower end of the recent trading range. Financial markets don’t like uncertainty which Sterling has in abundance currently due to Brexit and the current search for the next P.M. Various analysists are anticipating that Sterling should increase in value as either of these are closed out. Looking at the U.S. $ / Sterling rate various sources are now contemplating a reduction in the U.S. interest rates as the next move rather than a rate rise. This would obviously weaken the Dollar.

Soya

We are definitely in a weather market currently. Wet weather and the associated delayed planting of corn and therefore possibly soya beans in the U.S. is making the market very choppy. Whilst the U.S is behind with its soya bean plantings there are still many questions with unknown answers such as will the unplanted corn acreage be switched to soya beans (as they can be planted later) or will the farmers take the prevented planting insurance?

If we look at the demand side of things then it’s hard to see how this is going to increase dramatically over the coming weeks as China and other parts of Asia are still struggling to control the spread of African Swine flu and there are now rumours in the market that bird flu may be on the increase again.

Over the past week or so the Funds have again decreased their short positions as they have at least one eye on the U.S. weather and were feeling understandably concerned about their exposure. What this does mean is that if planting progresses well in the current slightly drier conditions then they have plenty of ammunition to push the market lower again.

The Below graphs shows the Jul ’19 contract movements for CBOT Soybean meal futures.

Afbeelding: soya 6.6.19

Rapemeal, Distillers and Maize Gluten

  • Rapemeal values have eased slightly over the past week or so manly on the back of soya easing.
  • Values are sat around 61% the value of soya for the summer and 63% for the winter which is back in line with its historical values.
  • Maize distiller’s values have firmed for the summer and winter due to Sterling weakness and the rise in the corn market as Funds look to decrease their shorts due to the wet weather in the U.S. delaying planting
  • Maize Gluten values have firmed mainly due to the same situation as distillers

Fibres

  • Hulls have firmed dramatically over the past week or so as shippers struggle to purchase forward volumes at previous values mainly due to a lack of Crusher selling.
  • Sugarbeet values still remain firm compared to hulls due to the smaller crops this year produced by last summer’s dry conditions. However, due to the generally mild UK winter and reduced offtake there is still plenty available.

Grain, Maize, Wheatfeed, Biscuit meals and Bread

  • Wheat futures have eased for all positions with the new crop values decreasing more than old crop.
  • Maize values have stabilised currently as the market keeps an eye on the planting situation in the U.S.
  • Wheatfeed values have firmed dramatically as more buyers enter the market due to its competitiveness against other products.
  • Biscuit meal values track the wheat futures market and are therefore looking competitive to physical wheat especially in the nearby positions.

Cereal values historical price graph. (£/t)

Afbeelding: Cereals 6.6.19

Market Prices 06/06/19

All prices Ex Port, subject to change without notice, please ring for quotes.

Red = Price Firmer
Green = Price Lower
Black = Price Same

Rapeseed Meal Ex Erith Ex Liverpool
June /Jul 190 198
Aug/Oct 190 200
Nov/Jan 200 208
     
     
Hipro Soya Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Jun / Jul 315 303
Aug / Oct 310 305
Nov / Apr 315 311

 

   
Soya Hulls Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Jun / July 154 154
Aug / Oct 157 157
Nov / Apr 163 163
     
Whole Maize Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Jun / Jul 179 179
Aug / Oct 181 181
Nov / Apr 182 182
     
Wheatfeed Pellets  
Jun / Sep '19 131  
Oct / Apr '20 145  
     
Imp Sugarbeet Ex Portbury Ex Plymouth
Jun 183 183
Jul / Oct '19 189 189
     
Maize Destillers Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Jun / Oct 220 220
Nov / Apr 220 220
     
London Wheat Futures   Weekly trend
Jul '19 150.55 3.20
Nov '19 151.00 7.50
Jan '20 154.30 6.50
Mar '20 156.75 6.15
May '20 157.75 6.35
Jul ''20 162.05 7.55
Nov '20 150.70 6.50
Jan '21 154.60 New position

The information contained herein is taken from sources we believe reliable, ForFarmers does not guarantee that it is accurate or complete and should be used for information purposes only. Market comments are the opinion of the author, and are not capable nor intended to create any legally binding obligations on either party.