For the Future of Farming

Commodity Market Report 4th August 2021

Currency graph

Currency

  • The Sterling is slightly stronger week on week against the Dollar (just shy of 0.5 cent vs. $).

Soya

  • We have seen prices ease slightly week on week but soybeans continue to be subject to the ever changing weather forecasts.
  • Looking ahead there is likely to be a shift to hot and dry weather just as the soybean crop will begin flowering and pod filling. This is the key stage for yield potential and could be detrimental to the current yield projections.
  • Rains last week have helped the US soybean crop and conditions this week were rated 60% good to excellent, versus a figure of 58% last week and 73% this time last year.
  • Low water levels in the Parana River in Argentina continue. This is the lowest in 80 years and has significantly reduced ship loading capacity. Increased freight costs are already reflected in prices but potential tightness in the EU stocks are looming.
  • The soybean pod-filling stage as of Mondays report is on par with last year and ahead of the 2016-2020 average, but we still have some way to go.
  • China is relatively quiet, crush and hog margins are poor resulting in lower soymeal inclusions. USDA and others have also reduced Chinese imports for 2021-2022.

Rapemeal

  • The outlook for the EU harvest is optimistic, but it will still be dependant on imports from outside of the EU. For January onwards it will likely be from Australia.
  • Competition for rapemeal prices to ease from soymeal and from November onwards sunmeal will also be competiting on the marketplace.
  • There does not seem to be any relief for Canada from the heatwave and there has been very little/no rain. Crop estimates are being revised lower, some suggest below 15 million tonnes.
  • Contact us for prices.

Distillers

  • Several ethanol plants are preparing for earlier than usual seasonal downtime.
  • The end of the US summer driving season is looming, this is early September.
  • Biden administration EPA moves the biofuels mandate debate further down the calendar.
  • Currently in low demand and high production season.
  • Contact us for prices.

Fibres

Soya Hulls

  • River draught issue are still a big concern with no nearby solution, causing firmer spot values.
  • Stocks are building at origin due to the draught restrictions.
  • Anticipation of ample sugarbeet crop could limit soya hull inclusion.

Sugarbeet

  • Dryness in some areas of Russia as well as recent floods in Germany could impact crop potential.
  • Some of the major importers are wide open for new campaign cover, most will likely come to market nearer to new crop (September/October).
  • Currently sugarbeet is not as attractive in diets versus other cheaper grains and by-products.

Palm Kernel

  • $5 rise in prices triggered short covering by shippers with volume trading at origin for August/September.
  • August shipments are almost fully committed and there is no pressure on crushers to sell. Indonesia is also under movement restrictions.
  • However we are still in a peak palm production period with strong vegetable oil demand.
  • New Zealand seem to be absent from the current market.
  • Please contact us for prices.

Cereals

Wheat

  • Wheat prices are firmer week on week up around £10T following likely crop losses for the US, Canada and Russia. This could mean that the wheat ending stocks:use ratio for major exporters could be at a record low.
  • Frosts and possible colder temperatures during early August is raising concerns over the impact upon the Brazilian and Argentine wheat crops, potentially tightening the world wheat balance sheet.
  • Wheat production in Romania could reach a record-high this season, as first estimates show a good-quality harvest.
  • SovEcon drop their Russian wheat estimate by 6 million tonnes.
  • Rains hamper the French wheat harvest which is 50% complete, versus 87% last year and there are quality concerns.

Barley

  • Harvest has continued at a good pace over the last few weeks despite some patchy adverse weather across the country.
  • Yields look to be and remain above expectation. Barley is also still being cut dry in most parts.
  • World malting barley prices are higher this week due to the wet weather and floods in the EU.

Maize

  • US maize prices are lower due to rains for much of the Midwest but Western parts are still dry.
  • 91% of US corn has reached or passed the silking phase which is ahead of the long-term average and 38% of US corn had reached the dough phase by the 1st of August. 
  • The weekly NASS crop progress report had corn conditions at 62% good to excellent, versus 64% last week and 72% this time last year.
  • The acerage outlook in US is on the high side but can be lowered as further hot and dry weather is forecast for the West, Midwest and Plains.
  • The next USDA report is out on the 12th August.

Fertiliser

  • India secured 1.2MT in the most recent tender, which was below requirements. A further tender is expected before the end of August, which should support current price ranges seen FOB Egypt.
  • UK urea prices have stabilised around replacement levels.
  • UK ammonium nitrate prices have moved higher by £10 as CF issued new prices.
  • Potash prices have risen following political sanctions on the world’s largest potash producer, curtailing supply at the UK's peak demand.
  • Contact us for prices or more details.

Moist co-products

  • EnPro Syrup is a highly palatable, free-flowing wheat syrup.
  • This well balanced feed is high in energy and protein and is available in artic tanker loads.
  • It is suitable for dairy, beef and pigs and mixes well with other feeds in the diet.
  • Contact the team for current prices and availability.

Palletised

Lump rock salt

  • Lack of salt causes low appetite, reduced feed efficiency and poor performance in ruminants.
  • To help to combat this, ForFarmers can supply 100% natural salt lumps, which are also suitable for organic farms.
  • Great for hot weather as salt will encourage more water intake which helps to combat heat stress
  • Contact our team for more information.

Forage

Stubble turnips

  • Whilst waiting for new crop harvest on stubble turnips, if you need to sow now have you considered a hybrid brassica?
  • The modern hybrid brassicas are a cross between a rape and a kale and are an excellent fast growing option for early autumn or quality winter feed.
  • New crop stubble turnips should be available by middle of month so if you have a requirement place an order and they will be despatched as soon as available

Additives for maize

  • Maize silage benefits from using an additive
  • Losses are avoidable if silage is stored and clamped correctly and managed to prevent aerobic spoilage.
  • Book a new additive order with ForFarmers and receive an additive shaker bottle
  • Order 10 units of Ecocool by end of August and get an extra 1 free of charge.
  • Order 9 units of Advance maize by end August and get an extra 1 free of charge and orders over 500tt will receive a cap.

Grass

  • Which of your fields will benefit from overseeding or reseeding to improve the quality from your home grown forage.  
  • To counter yield loss from climate change a drought tolerant grass mix should be considered. Using mixes containing rye grass plus grasses will help keep grass yields and quality up during periods of drought.
  • Book your TOPGRASS seed now for autumn sowings with the confidence that you are using tried and tested recommended listed varieties

Cereals

  • With cereal harvesting underway what varieties have performed well for you this season?
  • Wheat, barley, oats and beans available for autumn sowing. Contact us for a price and availability

Market prices 04/08/21

All prices Ex Port, subject to change without notice, please ring for quotes.
 

Weekly Trend

  • £/$ 1.391 - Sterling strength
  • £/Euro 1.172 - Sterling strength
     
Rapeseed Meal Ex Erith Ex Liverpool
Aug 224 poa
Sep / Oct 224 243.50
Nov / Jan 221 239
Feb / Apr 226 243
     
Hipro Soya Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Aug 352 355
Sep / Oct 352 355
Nov / Apr 347 346
May / Oct 22 asa 332 asa 330
     
Soya Hulls Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Aug 210 210
Sep 187 191
Oct / Apr 186 186
     
Whole Maize Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Aug 242 poa
Sep / Oct 243 poa
Nov / Apr asa 218 asa 218
May / Oct 22 223 223
     
Wheatfeed Pellets (Midlands)  
Aug / Sep poa  
Oct / Apr 163  
     
Imp Sugarbeet Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Aug / Oct poa poa
Nov / Apr asa 191 asa 191
May / Oct 22 194 194
     
Maize Distillers Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Aug poa 241
Sep 241 241
Sep / Apr asa 237 237
     
London Wheat Futures   Weekly Trend
Nov '21 185.60 Higher
Jan '22 188.25 Higher
Mar '22 189.65 Higher
May '22 191.15 Higher

 

Red = Price lower
Green = Price higher
Black = Price Same

The information contained herein is taken from sources we believe reliable, ForFarmers does not guarantee that it is accurate or complete and should be used for information purposes only. Market comments are the opinion of the author, and are not capable nor intended to create any legally binding obligations on either party.