For the Future of Farming

Commodity Market Report 10th August 2022


The next USDA/WASDE report will be released on Friday 12th August, with some suggesting a 10 million tonne drop to the EU maize crop because of the current heatwave.

Currency

  • Sterling is weaker against the dollar week on week, at around 1.3 cent versus the $.

Proteins

Soya

  • The US voted to keep Argentinian bio-diesel out and passed the Climate Bill. This resulted in the price of soy oil rallying.
  • This coming Friday’s USDA report may highlight a potential reduction in US soya crops. However, Chinese exports could help offset this reduction in availability.
  • The US soybean crop has been rated 59% good to excellent, a decrease of 1% week on week and a decrease of 1% year on year.
  • There are strong incentives for Brazilian farmers to plant more soy this autumn and this could provide additional global supplies in early 2023. 


Rapemeal

  • Autumn sown rapeseed crops are performing well across Europe and seem unaffected by the hot weather.
  • 80% of the UK rapeseed crop has now been harvested.
  • The low water levels on the Rhine continue, with some shipping only able to utilise 25% of their carrying capacity.
  • A large-scale German crushing plant is out of action due to a fire last week. The plant’s crushing capacity was 1 million tonnes of seed, and it won’t be operational for anywhere between two weeks and two months.
  • There are questions over whether high gas and energy prices will lead to rapemeal rationing in Germany this winter
  • We are yet to see whether the current lack of rain will impact sowing of the next rapeseed crop.
  • Global supplies are currently comfortable.


Distillers

  • The market is very vulnerable to changes in corn and soya future values, both of which remain volatile.
  • Peak production season finishes in early September, which is the end of US holiday driving period.
  • US ethanol production is strong, reporting a 2% increase week on week.
  • US barge and freight availability continues to be buoyant and will likely continue until the corn and soya harvest begins.

Fibres

Soya Hulls

  • Prices remain firm due to poor Argentinian crush margins and low bean ownership.
  • Energy shortages and volatile energy costs continue to pose a threat to production.
  • The appointment of a new Argentine finance minister should hopefully inspire more confidence for farmers to sell more hulls and help ease global supply.


Sugarbeet

  • The French sugar beet forecast for 2022 is down by 1.83% compared to their 10-year average.
  • Completely illiquid market for new campaign.
  • Some Russian material is still available. This is a molassed pulp with maximum 14% sugar and comes under a different customs code.

Palm Kernel

  • Asian destinations continue to show weak demand for kernels.
  • Despite some recent heavy spot buying, the main ports ended the week with no open offers.
  • Crushers are well covered for August and September positions.
  • The Malaysian palm oil association estimates that July production was down 1.14%, month on month.

Cereals

Wheat

  • Ukraine's 2022/2023 wheat crop is thought to be down 13.5 million tonnes, year on year
  • November wheat futures are down by about £2/t, week on week.
  • Cereal prices have lowered due to the improved shipping situation from Ukraine and optimism for spring wheat crops in both US and Canada.
  • While Russia has announced a record wheat crop, with one report noting 95 million tonnes, export capacity could limit availability.
  • Lower protein levels being reported in the current UK wheat harvest. Average levels are down by 0.5-0.7% compared to last season.


Barley

  • Prices are slightly down, week on week, and in line with wheat prices.
  • The market has been quiet over the past week, as pressure from the winter harvest eases and growers focus on harvesting and moving other crops.
  • China has replaced usual EU barley purchases with purchases from Russia.
  • The stock:usage ratio for barley is the tightest of the three cereal crops (barley, wheat and maize).


Maize

  • The heatwave has negatively impacted EU maize crop performance. As a result, maize prices in the UK are getting firmer, week on week.
  • It has been suggested that the current heatwave could result in a 10 million tonne loss in EU maize yields.
  • USDA currently suggests that maize yield losses could be as high as 68 million tonnes.
  • US maize has been rated 58% good to excellent, down by 3% week on week, and down 6% year on year.

Fertiliser

  • Granular urea pricing increased in the UK.
  • Fuelled by continuing concerns regarding future nitrogen supply in Europe, Egyptian granular urea prices have continued their upwards movement from last week, increasing by over $100/t.
  • Natural gas at the TTF hub in the Netherlands hit a new record on 27th July at €227.50/MWh ($67.70/MMBtu) on the ICE futures exchange. This appears to have stirred Europe and the UK out of a focus on harvest and into nitrogen buying.
  • European nitrate prices also moved upwards this week, as producers continue to contend with volatility in gas supplies.
  •  Contact us for prices or more details.

Co-products

  • With limited rainfall and a lack of grass in many areas of the UK, we are seeing an increased demand for moist feed. 
  • SecloPlus is a cost-effective, moist, blended co-product with good levels of starch and sugar. It has a proven track record of enhancing rations.
  • SelcoPlus is treated with bespoke preservatives for enhanced keeping quality, making it a good feed option during the current hot weather.
  • Fixed prices are available on contract until the end of September. Pitting prices are also available and offer the option to secure tonnage before winter.
  • SelcoPlus is manufactured to order and available for delivery now. please contact the team

Forage

Grass

  • With the continuing dry weather, grass reseeding is being put on hold in many areas of the UK.
  • Grass will now most likely be sown later in the season, so adaptive decisions regarding grass seed mixes will need to be made.
  • It will be important to choose mixtures that accommodate quicker growing grasses that can establish before winter sets in. Speak to our Forage team today, to discuss your options.
  • Modern grass leys need to be able to withstand the increasing volatility in UK weather conditions. Our Ryegrass PLUS grasses are stress tolerant and have good longevity.
  • To help measure your grazing platform please register here for your free sward stick.


Additives

  • With grass yields back, or cutting not an option at present, grasses’ quality could also be reduced.
  • The use of an additive will help maximise the quality of later cut grass silage.
  • If you still have wholecrop or crimp to harvest this year, we strongly recommend utilising an additive.
  • All crops benefit from using an additive to reduce losses and improve milk production or liveweight gain. And with lots of options available, please contact a member of our team for more information.
  • Any new additive orders can receive a free shaker bottle.


Cereals

  • With harvest underway, have you considered your autumn seed sowing options?
  • Contact our Forage team today to discuss options, availability and prices.


Stubble turnips

  • New crop stubble turnips are available, call our Forage team for further information.
  • Root mixes are also available to sow right through into September, offering a valuable winter keep option.

Hot weather advice

Heat stress

  • Heat stress can affect all livestock and can alter their health, performance and feed intakes.
  • Make sure your animals have access to shade, clean water and feed.


Bulk bins

  • Humidity and high temperatures can cause problems with mouldy feed.
  • We recommend that you keep stock levels slightly lower to retain it's freshness.
  • Emptying and cleaning out your bulk bins on a regular basis will also help.
     

Market prices 10/08/22

Weekly currency trend

£/$ 1.208 - stronger dollar
£/Euro 1.186 - stronger Euro

 

As raw material markets are very unstable we are not able to put any prices out.