For the Future of Farming

Commodity Market Report 1st December 2021

Currency graph

Currency

  • The Sterling is weaker against the Dollar week on week (1 cent vs. $).
     

Proteins

Soya

  • The market is currently focused on the South American crops and the threat of a La Nina still possible. Planting progress is good so far, but there's still a long way to go.
  • There has been a good demand for meal in the US and this has been caused by the lack of rapemeal and lysine.
  • The US harvest is complete and despite the USDA not reporting the record crop the market predicted, ending stocks are comfortable at 9.3 million tonne and could rise.
  • Brazil is 86% planted and well above the 77% average pace. A record 144 million tonne crop is predicted (+7 million tonne year on year).
  • Argentina is 39% planted and on track to be 90% complete by the end of December.
  • Chinese exports from the US in October were down 77% year on year. Storm Ida has not helped and the export window is shrinking with the early Brazilian harvest looming.

Rapemeal

  • O\W has put the Canadian supply down 31.3% year on year.
  • Canada is struggling to get seed to export terminals in Vancover.
  • In Australia rain continues to fall heavily in some regions which has been causing disruption to the harvest.
  • UK prices are still trading slightly below season highs.

Distillers

  • Chinese anti-dumping duties should end on the 11th January unless domestic players petition against it, which would invoke a 1 year review period. This would be a major bullish flag if they don't.
  • EU producers are well sold until January and tight supply of coasters will continue to support prices.
  • US ethanol production is up 2% week on week. This is over 1 million barrels per day and stocks are still decreasing.
  • Export trade flow is limited with difficult logistics and the Dollar strength has been creating stocks at source.
  • The potential removal of the EU 25% tariff on US corn could facilitate regular combo shipments for countries that buy GM products, for example the UK, Ireland, and Spain.

Fibres

Soya Hulls

  • There are currently tight stocks at destinations which is supporting values and many UK ports are sold out until the arrivals in the New Year.
  • Sugarbeet is scarce and expensive so some demand has been switching to soya hulls.
  • Crush margins remain poor at $2-$4.
  • Stocks in Argentina and the US could marginally pressure prices if they become burdensome and can be executed.

Sugarbeet

  • UK supplier Trident has withdrawn from sales until a clearer picture on beet production is known.
  • Sugarbeet will still need to compete in diets versus other grains and fibres.
  • The coaster freight market remains high and has been pushing CIFFO levels higher.

Palm Kernel

  • Origin supply remains tight for December and January shipments. 
  • Flooding in Indonesia and a very recent lower kernel crush in Malaysia is keeping prices firm.
  • Volume interest for January shipments from South East Asia are picking up.
  • Demand for palm oil remains strong.
  • However 2022 order flow remains very slow.
  • Please contact us for prices.

Cereals

Wheat

  • Global wheat prices have traded to record highs this past week on concerns of declining export availability and continued import demand.
  • However the past couple days we have seen wheat lower on the Covid-19 sell off and as ABARE peg the Australian wheat crop at a record 34.4 million tonne. The USDA figure was 31.5 million tonne.
  • ADM Agriculture have pointed out that France’s new crop has also got off to a good start with 93% of the intended wheat area drilled by mid-November and 99% of that deemed either in good or very good condition.

Barley

  • Barley prices have increased the past week but not risen with wheat on a one-to-one basis, which has increased the competitiveness of barley in feed rations.

Maize

  • The US stocks report showed higher quantities as estimated and improving yields during the harvest.
  • China imported a record 28 million tonnes in 2020/2021.
  • US maize is lower and in line with the wheat drop due to the Covid-19 sell off and production prospects with the Ukraine. The Ukraine is forecast to harvest 40 million tonnes which is +10 million tonnes year on year.
  • Brazil is 93% planted versus 88% average pace.

Fertiliser

  • Granular urea availability in December shipments is severely limited due to new restrictions imposed by Egypt on fertiliser exports.
  • The Indian tender has also taken much of December tonnage off the world market, further tightening supply.
  • Demand in Europe and South America has still to surface and so values look well supported going into Q1 2022.
  • UK ammonium nitrate producer CF has increased prices by about £20/t. 
  • There are rising tensions in Belarus and Germany due to regulatory delays to the Nordstream 2 gas pipeline. This could have an impact on the European gas markets once again and is likely to underpin European nitrogen fertiliser production costs.
  • With an increase in seasonal logistical pressures, product bought for Nov/Dec delivery is becoming increasingly hard to execute. Delaying purchasing decisions further will only mean delayed orders in the spring.
  • DAP prices have increased once again. MOP and TSP levels remain high.
  • Contact us for prices or more details.

Co-products

  • Have you considered using processed bread?
  • It is a cost effective starch source made from the highest quality milling wheat.
  • A quality cereal replacer which needs no further processing prior to feeding.
  • Good levels of highly fermentable energy.
  • Delivery is available nationwide for both spot loads and forward contracts.
  • For prices and availability contact the team

Palletised minerals

  • Have you ordered your buckets for tupping and lambing yet?
  • Our Minline Sheep Energy & Protein buckets have 15% protein, 12 ME/kg energy levels and protected zinc to aid health and fertility.
  • We have great discounts on them if you order them now for delivery in January.
  • Please contact our team for more information and prices.

Forage

Reserve your additive for 2022

  • All crops benefit from using an additive to reduce losses and improve milk production or liveweight gain.
  • Offers are vailable on Sil all 4x4, Ecosyl and Ecocool (buy 10 get 1 free) reserving before Christmas and confirming volumes before delivery.

Maize

  • With this years maize harvest in the clamp now is the time to review analysis and look at varieties for next year.
  • To guarantee your chosen variety and ensure bird repellent treatment reserve your seed today.

Spring Cereals

  • Spring barley, wheat, oats, peas, beans and arable silage mixes available for spring sowing.
  • Call our Forage team today for current availability and terms.

Market prices 01/12/21

All prices Ex Port, subject to change without notice, please ring for quotes.
 

Weekly Trend

£/$ 1.333 - Dollar strength

£/Euro 1.183 - Sterling weaker
 

Rapeseed Meal Ex Erith Ex Liverpool
Dec / Jan 290 poa
Feb / Apr 273 poa
May / Jul 273 289
Aug / Oct  223 239
     
Hipro Soya Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Nov 382 poa
Dec / Jan  asa 383 asa 383
Feb / Apr asa 373 poa
May / Oct asa 347 asa 346
     
Soya Hulls Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Nov / Jan Sold out poa
Feb / Apr asa 237 poa
May / Jul 215 215
     
Whole Maize Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Nov / Dec 264 asa 264
Jan / Apr asa 262 asa 262
May / Oct  258 258
     
Wheatfeed Pellets (Midlands)  
Jan / Apr 218  
     
Imp Sugarbeet Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Nov / Apr asa 264 asa 263
May / Oct  267 268
     
Maize Distillers Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Nov 307 307
Dec 301 301
Jan / Apr 272 272
May / Oct  275 275
     
London Wheat Futures   Weekly Trend
Nov '21 238.75 Higher
Jan '22 232.75 Higher
Mar '22 236.45 Higher
May '22 240.00 Higher
Nov '22 210.00 Higher

 

Red = Price lower
Green = Price higher
Black = Price Same

The information contained herein is taken from sources we believe reliable, ForFarmers does not guarantee that it is accurate or complete and should be used for information purposes only. Market comments are the opinion of the author, and are not capable nor intended to create any legally binding obligations on either party.