For the Future of Farming

Commodity Market Report 3rd October 2019

Currency

News that Boris Johnson’s new proposals for a Brexit deal may get increased support in the UK have lifted Sterling slightly week on week. In the short term currency traders believe that if a deal is struck with Europe then we should see Sterling increase whilst on the flip side if we move further away from a deal then we should expect Sterling to devalue. Current rates are U.S. $ 1.2343 and Euro 1.1249.

Soya

The September grain and stocks report threw the cat amongst the pigeons earlier in the week as it looks as if we have lost 3 million tonnes off the 2018/19 carryout. So straight away that will affect the 2019/20 carryout by the same tonnage, taking it from 17MMT down to 14MMT. We also have the US weather to worry about for the next 4-6 weeks before we can call this crop. With the late planting of beans and the cooler wetter weather conditions, the crop has not flourished over the last 6-7 weeks. Therefore, the trade believes the yield currently forecast by the USDA at 47.9 could be down 1-2 points; every point dropped will reduce the crop by a further 2 million tonnes. So you can see with the funds running big shorts in meal, they could become more reluctant to add to their position if the carryout continues to shrink. Having said that if we end up with a 14 million tonne carryout, it is still a healthy number and current CBOT levels shouldn’t be far away from where we are today. It’s a good job the Chinese demand is mainly being filled by South America otherwise we would be looking at much higher prices. Sterling obviously has a big impact on UK values so any movement will affect our local prices.


The below graphs shows the December ’19 contract movements for CBOT Soybean meal futures.

December ’19 contract movements for CBOT Soybean meal futures.

Rapemeal, Distillers and Maize Gluten

  • Rapemeal values have firmed another few pounds per tonne over the course of the week mainly due to the uplift in soya values following the September Stocks report from the U.S. Alongside this we are beginning to hear rumours that EU crushing is beginning to slow down as crush margins are reducing. We may even start to see some of the switch plants looking to take further capacity out of the market as they look to switch to crushing soya as the margins look healthier currently.
  • The story remains fairly unchanged on RSM. Domestically it is competitive and as such crushers continue to see interest from compounders and straights customers alike.
  • Maize distiller’s values have firmed over the course of the week as shippers are struggling to persuade U.S. sellers to discount material currently.
  • Maize Gluten values have stabilised currently as the market awaits further direction from the supply side of things.

Fibres

  • Hulls have eased slightly over the course of the week as origin values have eased marginally. Crush margins are still poor in Argentina and therefore it is not expected that this trend will continue ongoing.
  • Imported Sugarbeet values have remained unchanged week on week although it still looks uncompetitive currently for the winter against home produced material. Please call for your individual quotes.

Grain, Maize, Wheatfeed, Biscuit meals and Bread

  • As can be seen from the chart below London wheat futures have risen and then eased back over the course of the last week. Sterling’s value is having an effect on our wheat values as the higher Sterling goes, the less competitive we are in the export markets which is where most of the demand is coming from currently.
  • Maize values have firmed due to news from the stocks report that shows global stocks reducing.
  • Wheatfeed values have firmed as a lack of sellers for the winter has pushed the market higher.
  • Biscuit meal values track the wheat futures market and are therefore looking competitive to physical wheat and there are now opportunities to lock in for the winter. Please call for prices.


November position London Wheat futures chart. (£/t) 

 November position London Wheat futures chart. (£/t) 

Market Prices 03/10/19

All prices Ex Port, subject to change without notice, please ring for quotes.
 

Weekly Trend

  • £/$ 1.2343 - Sterling marginally firmer
  • £/Euro 1.1249 - Sterling stable
     
Rapeseed Meal Ex Erith Ex Liverpool
Oct 186 191
Nov/Jan 190 194
Feb/Apr 200 202
     
Hipro Soya Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Oct / Nov 300 297
Dec / Jan 301 299
Feb / Apr 303 299
Asa May / Oct 309 303
     
Soya Hulls Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Oct 146 146
Nov 146 146
Dec / Apr 148.50 148.50
     
Whole Maize Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Oct 173 173
Nov / Apr 173 173
May / Oct 175 175
     
Wheatfeed Pellets (Midlands)  
Oct / Apr '20 137  
     
Imp Sugarbeet Ex Portbury Ex Humber
Sep / Oct 185 180
Nov / Apr 171 166
     
Maize Destillers Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Oct 207 207
Nov / Apr 207 207
     
London Wheat Futures   Weekly trend
Nov '19 136.50 0.50
Jan '20 138.60 0.75
Mar '20 140.95 0.85
May '20 142.75 0.25
Jul '20 147.85 1.60
Nov '20 145.50 0.40
Jan '21 147.80 0.25
Mar '21 149.10 0.65

 

Red = Price Firmer
Green = Price Lower
Black = Price Same

The information contained herein is taken from sources we believe reliable, ForFarmers does not guarantee that it is accurate or complete and should be used for information purposes only. Market comments are the opinion of the author, and are not capable nor intended to create any legally binding obligations on either party.