Commodity Market Report 10th August 2022

The next USDA/WASDE report will be released on Friday 12^th August, with some suggesting a 10 million tonne drop to the EU maize crop because of the current heatwave.

Currency

Sterling is weaker against the dollar week on week, at around 1.3 cent versus the $.

Proteins

Soya

The US voted to keep Argentinian bio-diesel out and passed the Climate Bill. This resulted in the price of soy oil rallying.
This coming Friday’s USDA report may highlight a potential reduction in US soya crops. However, Chinese exports could help offset this reduction in availability.
The US soybean crop has been rated 59% good to excellent, a decrease of 1% week on week and a decrease of 1% year on year.
There are strong incentives for Brazilian farmers to plant more soy this autumn and this could provide additional global supplies in early 2023.

Rapemeal

Autumn sown rapeseed crops are performing well across Europe and seem unaffected by the hot weather.
80% of the UK rapeseed crop has now been harvested.
The low water levels on the Rhine continue, with some shipping only able to utilise 25% of their carrying capacity.
A large-scale German crushing plant is out of action due to a fire last week. The plant’s crushing capacity was 1 million tonnes of seed, and it won’t be operational for anywhere between two weeks and two months.
There are questions over whether high gas and energy prices will lead to rapemeal rationing in Germany this winter
We are yet to see whether the current lack of rain will impact sowing of the next rapeseed crop.
Global supplies are currently comfortable.

Distillers

The market is very vulnerable to changes in corn and soya future values, both of which remain volatile.
Peak production season finishes in early September, which is the end of US holiday driving period.
US ethanol production is strong, reporting a 2% increase week on week.
US barge and freight availability continues to be buoyant and will likely continue until the corn and soya harvest begins.

Fibres

Soya Hulls

Prices remain firm due to poor Argentinian crush margins and low bean ownership.
Energy shortages and volatile energy costs continue to pose a threat to production.
The appointment of a new Argentine finance minister should hopefully inspire more confidence for farmers to sell more hulls and help ease global supply.

Sugarbeet

The French sugar beet forecast for 2022 is down by 1.83% compared to their 10-year average.
Completely illiquid market for new campaign.
Some Russian material is still available. This is a molassed pulp with maximum 14% sugar and comes under a different customs code.

Palm Kernel

Asian destinations continue to show weak demand for kernels.
Despite some recent heavy spot buying, the main ports ended the week with no open offers.
Crushers are well covered for August and September positions.
The Malaysian palm oil association estimates that July production was down 1.14%, month on month.

Cereals

Wheat

Ukraine's 2022/2023 wheat crop is thought to be down 13.5 million tonnes, year on year
November wheat futures are down by about £2/t, week on week.
Cereal prices have lowered due to the improved shipping situation from Ukraine and optimism for spring wheat crops in both US and Canada.
While Russia has announced a record wheat crop, with one report noting 95 million tonnes, export capacity could limit availability.
Lower protein levels being reported in the current UK wheat harvest. Average levels are down by 0.5-0.7% compared to last season.

Barley

Prices are slightly down, week on week, and in line with wheat prices.
The market has been quiet over the past week, as pressure from the winter harvest eases and growers focus on harvesting and moving other crops.
China has replaced usual EU barley purchases with purchases from Russia.
The stock:usage ratio for barley is the tightest of the three cereal crops (barley, wheat and maize).

Maize

The heatwave has negatively impacted EU maize crop performance. As a result, maize prices in the UK are getting firmer, week on week.
It has been suggested that the current heatwave could result in a 10 million tonne loss in EU maize yields.
USDA currently suggests that maize yield losses could be as high as 68 million tonnes.
US maize has been rated 58% good to excellent, down by 3% week on week, and down 6% year on year.

Fertiliser

Granular urea pricing increased in the UK.
Fuelled by continuing concerns regarding future nitrogen supply in Europe, Egyptian granular urea prices have continued their upwards movement from last week, increasing by over $100/t.
Natural gas at the TTF hub in the Netherlands hit a new record on 27th July at €227.50/MWh ($67.70/MMBtu) on the ICE futures exchange. This appears to have stirred Europe and the UK out of a focus on harvest and into nitrogen buying.
European nitrate prices also moved upwards this week, as producers continue to contend with volatility in gas supplies.
Contact us for prices or more details.

Co-products

With limited rainfall and a lack of grass in many areas of the UK, we are seeing an increased demand for moist feed.
SecloPlus is a cost-effective, moist, blended co-product with good levels of starch and sugar. It has a proven track record of enhancing rations.
SelcoPlus is treated with bespoke preservatives for enhanced keeping quality, making it a good feed option during the current hot weather.
Fixed prices are available on contract until the end of September. Pitting prices are also available and offer the option to secure tonnage before winter.
SelcoPlus is manufactured to order and available for delivery now. please contact the team

Forage

Grass

With the continuing dry weather, grass reseeding is being put on hold in many areas of the UK.
Grass will now most likely be sown later in the season, so adaptive decisions regarding grass seed mixes will need to be made.
It will be important to choose mixtures that accommodate quicker growing grasses that can establish before winter sets in. Speak to our Forage team today, to discuss your options.
Modern grass leys need to be able to withstand the increasing volatility in UK weather conditions. Our Ryegrass PLUS grasses are stress tolerant and have good longevity.
To help measure your grazing platform please register here for your free sward stick.

Additives

With grass yields back, or cutting not an option at present, grasses’ quality could also be reduced.
The use of an additive will help maximise the quality of later cut grass silage.
If you still have wholecrop or crimp to harvest this year, we strongly recommend utilising an additive.
All crops benefit from using an additive to reduce losses and improve milk production or liveweight gain. And with lots of options available, please contact a member of our team for more information.
Any new additive orders can receive a free shaker bottle.

Cereals

With harvest underway, have you considered your autumn seed sowing options?
Contact our Forage team today to discuss options, availability and prices.

Stubble turnips

New crop stubble turnips are available, call our Forage team for further information.
Root mixes are also available to sow right through into September, offering a valuable winter keep option.

Hot weather advice

Heat stress

Heat stress can affect all livestock and can alter their health, performance and feed intakes.
Make sure your animals have access to shade, clean water and feed.

Bulk bins

Humidity and high temperatures can cause problems with mouldy feed.
We recommend that you keep stock levels slightly lower to retain it's freshness.
Emptying and cleaning out your bulk bins on a regular basis will also help.

Market prices 10/08/22

Weekly currency trend

£/$ 1.208 - stronger dollar
£/Euro 1.186 - stronger Euro

As raw material markets are very unstable we are not able to put any prices out.