Commodity Market Report 9th September 2019

Currency

As the saying goes “A week in politics can be a long time”! Brexit continues to lead Sterling’s direction with movements happening on a daily basis as we move closer to the October 31^st deadline. Will we see the government propose a vote of no confidence in itself?! We’re definitely in political unchartered waters currently so we could see anything happen over the course of the next few weeks. We’ve seen Sterling rebound from the lows over the last few days and is currently standing at U.S. $ 1.23 and Euro 1.11.

Soya

As can be seen from the chart below soya has eased on the Chicago market recently. In a similar vein to the last few weeks, CBOT meal futures have been struggling to find some fundamental traction, though with trade deal news fairly quiet and US weather still looking fairly good from a pod-filling point of view, it is difficult for the market to really get behind any significant buying or short covering. This has been leading to a slow but gradual downward trend over the whole of the month of August for CBOT. While US weather is trending cooler, the frost risk remains limited. This frost risk could prove a significant bull flag should it creep into the forecast. For now however, the longer terms outlook seems to be bringing slightly warmer weather again.

The below graphs shows the Sep ’19 contract movements for CBOT Soybean meal futures.

Rapemeal, Distillers and Maize Gluten

Rapemeal - European yields have been patchy with some reporting reasonable to good yields with patches of poor. It is still anticipated that overall harvested volumes will be down a few % on yield but with a reduced acreage. The market continues to track soya by slightly easing.
Values are sat just under 60% the value of soya through until January and 64% for the rest of the winter which is back in line with its historical values.
Maize distiller’s values remain unchanged week on week.
Maize Gluten values have stabilised currently as the market awaits further direction from the supply side of things.

Fibres

Hulls have eased marginally over the course of the week due to Sterling although they are still looking relatively expensive into certain regions compared to home produced Sugarbeet.
Imported Sugarbeet values have eased marginally due to the slight uplift in Sterling but the main news is that Trident have now come out with their new crop home produced values. Please call for your individual quotes.

Grain, Maize, Wheatfeed, Biscuit meals and Bread

As can be seen from the chart below London wheat futures have continued to slide although we have seen a small bounce off the lows at the end of last week. UK cereals are now competitive in the global marketplace at these values which should enable the UK surplus to be exported.
Maize values have eased over the course of the week mainly on the back of the slight uplift in Sterling.
Wheatfeed values have firmed nearby as the supply tightens up but further forward values have eased marginally.
Biscuit meal values track the wheat futures market and are therefore looking competitive to physical wheat especially in the nearby positions.

November position London Wheat futures chart. (£/t)

Market Prices 09/09/19

All prices Ex Port, subject to change without notice, please ring for quotes.

Weekly Trend

£/$ 1.2336 - Mixed
£/Euro 1.1186 - Sterling slightly stronger

Rapeseed Meal	Ex Erith	Ex Liverpool
Sep	178	190
Oct	179	188
Nov/Jan	180	188
Feb/Apr	191	197

Hipro Soya	Ex Portbury	Ex Liverpool
Sep	300	309
Oct	300	294
Nov / Apr	300	298
Asa May / Oct	303	300
Soya Hulls	Ex Portbury	Ex Liverpool
Sep	154	153
Oct	154	153
Nov / Apr	157	157

Whole Maize	Ex Portbury	Ex Liverpool
Sep / Oct	176	176
Nov / Apr	171	171
May / Oct	177	177

Wheatfeed	Pellets (Midlands)
Sep '19	126
Oct / Apr '20	126

Imp Sugarbeet	Ex Portbury	Ex Humber
Sep / Oct	186	182
Nov / Apr	176	170

Maize Destillers	Ex Portbury	Ex Liverpool
Sep / Oct	209	209
Nov / Apr	207	207

London Wheat Futures		Weekly trend
Nov '19	134.15	- 3.35
Jan '20	135.85	- 2.80
Mar '20	138.35	- 3.15
May '20	140.50	- 3.50
Jul '20	147.90	- 3.80
Nov '20	142.55	- 3.45
Jan '21	145.15	- 3.35
Mar '21	147.40	- 3.60

Red = Price Firmer
Green = Price Lower
Black = Price Same

The information contained herein is taken from sources we believe reliable, ForFarmers does not guarantee that it is accurate or complete and should be used for information purposes only. Market comments are the opinion of the author, and are not capable nor intended to create any legally binding obligations on either party.