For the Future of Farming

Commodity Market Report 18th May 2022

Currency graph

Currency

  • The Sterling is slightly weaker against the Dollar week on week, 0.2 cent versus $.
     

Proteins

Soya

  • The global bean 2021/2022 crop supply and demand is the tightest since 2013/2014.
  • The USDA reported the ending stocks for 2021/2022 at 235 million bushels (6.4million tonne) which is still very tight, and we still expect to see further increases of US exports going forward, so this carryout will get smaller.
  • The USDA pegged the 2022/2023 end stocks at 8.4 million tonnes, which is below expectations.
  • Chinese imports increased by 7 million tonnes year on year.
  • The US weather season is volatile and currently beans are 12% planted, which is 24% behind the average. There is a reliance on a record acreage and yield but the bean:corn ratio at 1.99 doesn’t support record plantings, however the weather and rotation may take priority over the economics.
  • The USDA has increased the 2022/2023 global bean production by 11.5%, up 46 million tonnes but the stock:use ratio is still below the 5 year average.
  • On the other hand the USDA has dropped the 2021/2022 Argentinian crop by 1.5 million tonnes and has left Brazil unchanged at 125 million tonnes as the good late conditions helped.
  • The next USDA is on the 10th of June.

Rapemeal

  • Dryness in Europe is increasing the risk of harm to new crop rape.
  • New crop supply from the Ukraine and Russia is unpredictable.
  • There's an increasing supply of rapeseed in the EU, Canada and Australia.

Distillers

  • US domestic demand for maize distillers is unlikely to change dramatically as there is now monogastric use as well, which is now well established.
  • Lower sunflower availability has increased DDGS demand.
  • US production is up 2% week on week and expected to increase further.
  • US river logistics are greatly improved with barge values sharply lower.
  • Ethanol plants are active sellers following spring maintenance shutdowns but are finding little spot interest.

Fibres

Soya Hulls

  • Energy costs remain a concern that could lead to crush cuts in Argentina.
  • Global demand for hulls, particularly to North Africa, remains strong.
  • There are limited offers for the winter period and a lack of sugarbeet is keeping values firm.
  • Summer production figures are ok with acceptable harvest progress and beans ownership is providing liquidity.

Sugarbeet

  • Planting of the US crop has been delayed by four weeks.
  • A lack of moisture in France and Germany is raising concerns.
  • Strong US domestic demand has pushed export prices higher.
  • Egypt still has volume to bring to the market for tender.

Palm Kernel

  • Indonesia's palm oil export ban has triggered some crushers there to withdraw from offering PKE until the market becomes clearer.
  • Malaysia is still having some post-covid manpower issues which could impact production if steps are not taken to resolve it.
  • Nearby months are well covered by consumers but the winter is wide open.
  • With high oil values and good margins Malaysian crushers are expected to increase crush to maximum capacity.
  • Please contact us for prices.

Cereals

Wheat

  • The Black Sea war has been blocking the Ukraine's exports and has put sanctions on Russia. The Ukraine's 2022/2023 crop is estimated to be down -11.5 million tonnes year on year.
  • After their recent heatwave and crop losses, India has banned wheat exports although existing deals will be honoured. There will be some “food” exemptions and the ban isn't permanent.
  • The wheat crops in North America and China are very poor.
  • Dryness is building in parts of Western Europe.
  • We've seen slow wheat exports for the EU, 63% shipped versus 74% average and the US, 91% sold versus 98% average.
  • Russian exports are better than feared.
  • The US winter wheat has been rated just 27% good/excellent and their spring wheat is 39% planted, versus 67% average pace. US maize plantings are 49% complete, verses 67% average.

Barley

  • USDA has raised the worldwide 2022/2023 harvest to 148.97 million tonnes which is +3,94 million tonnes higher than the current harvest.
  • World end stocks have been put at 16.49 million tonnes for this season (- 0,31) and estimated at 16.89 million tonnes for next season.
  • Lower production in Ukraine and Morocco are compensated by higher production in Russia, Canada, USA and Turkey.

Maize

  • Global ending stocks are better than expected for both 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 crops although a stock reduction of 4 million tonnes year on year and much held in Ukraine.
  • Ukraine's 2022/2023 crop has been pegged at 19.5 million tonnes versus 42.1 million for 2021/2022, which is a massive drop but it's still early days.
  • Ukraine’s Agricultural Minister estimated that they can export 1.5 million tonnes of grains pcm max, the USDA has estimated 1.8 million.

Fertiliser

  • New season AN prices are out, but very limited amounts are being offered. The price was below expectations.
  • There's an expectation that prices will move higher for the second allocations when they come out.
  • Imported AN came back briefly when CF came out but have now moved back over £700.
  • Urea prices are back a little on last week to kick off forward prices.
  • Both P & K prices are up due to supply issues.
  • Contact us for prices or more details.

Co-products

  • Are you needing a cost effective moist feed this summer?
  • AmyPlus is a moist blend co-product and is a competitively priced option against other products on the market.
  • Fixed prices are available to contract for the summer, offering guaranteed supply and reassurance of costs during the current market instability.
  • Offering a fresh aroma and good levels of starch and sugars, Amyplus is nutrient rich and has a proven track record of enhancing rations.  
  • Available in Artic and Rigid loads to South England and South Wales. 
  • Should you have interest in pricing and availability please contact the team

Forage

Grass

  • With rising feed cost home grown forage is an alternative option and incorporating clover into leys will help with protein levels. Review our full range of grasses
  • If you are planning any autumn reseeds, soil pH should be checked ready for reseeding. Incorrect pH is the main reason for failures of grass leys.
  • For your free sward stick register here

Home grown protein

Additives

  • With silaging underway, do you have your additive? Or do you need to order stock for your second cut?
  • Planning to harvest wholecrop this year – have you considered your additive options?
  • All crops benefit from using an additive to reduce losses and improve milk production or liveweight gain.
  • There are many options available.
  • Any new additive orders can receive a free shaker bottle.

Fodder Crops

  • Mixed forage diets increase intakes and ensure optimum rumen stability, improved feed utilisation and animal performance
  • Forage rape, kale, hybrid brassicas, stubble turnips, turnips and swedes are all options to maximise home grown forage and add protein to the diet.
  • Contact our Forage team today to discuss options.

Market prices 18/05/22

Weekly currency trend

£/$ 1.225 - Dollar strength
£/Euro 1.175 - Stronger Sterling

 

As raw material markets are very unstable we are not able to put any prices out.