For the Future of Farming

6th December 2023 Commodity Market Report

Improving weather in Brazil and stabilisation of soya crop, but big uncertainty of the damage already done. Crop forecasts range from 151 -170 million tonnes!

Afbeelding: Commodity report exchange rate graph 06-12-23
  • Sterling is slightly weaker against the dollar week-on-week, 0.1 cent versus $.



  • Positive news on Argentinian crop, with plantings at 44% and well ahead of last year.
  • New President, Javier Milei, will remove export and currency hurdles. This will encourage some old crop farmer selling and push up meal supplies Feb-April.
  • US remains the main meal supplier for now, with no competition from Argentina and potential Brazilian harvest delays.


  • Drop in acreage reported for 2024 crop - down 4-7% in Germany and 16% in the UK.
  • Crush margins remain favourable, with good demand for biodiesel as no competition from Argentina.
  • With positive news from Brazil and Argentina, rapemeal will need to compete May onwards.

Maize Distillers

  • U.S ethanol production dips for second consecutive week (-1.2%), mainly as a result of Thanksgiving holidays.
  • U.S barge freight levels drift lower following usual seasonal declines (-$6). Rail demand also lower negatively affecting values.
  • Margins remain positive for U.S producers out into Q1 and ethanol exports very strong.


Palm Kernel

  • Crushers well sold through January. Lower production season looming, so crushers reluctant to sell beyond nearby months.
  • Current production levels very healthy, with positive margins.

Soya Hulls

  • Argentine crush for Q4 significantly down amid low bean supplies and negative margins with domestic beans.
  • Big rebound in production expected for the 2024 Argentine soya bean crop.


  • Potential lack of imports for summer due to lack of demand. This could drive higher technical markets at destination.
  • Winter market controlled by storage to a certain extent, but stocks will need to move in summer when demand is even lower.



  • Hedge funds short of 15.8m tonnes of CBOT wheat, some short covering reported last week.
  • Cheap Russian wheat exports, at record volumes.
  • Cheap Ukrainian wheat entering EU.
  • Stronger Sterling weighs on UK market.


  • UK connecting on occasional barley exports, excluding east coast, but giving limited support.
  • AHDB say UK barley surplus at 1.4 million tonnes, with July-Nov exports at 258k tonnes.
  • EU and UK 2023/24 global barley ending stocks:use ratio tightest since pre-2000.


  • USDA's crop estimate of 129 million tonnes for Brazil looks toppy.
  • Global 2023/24 maize ending stocks excl. China +20 million tonnes year-on-year.


  • Granular urea into Europe has seen some softness, as demand continues to be lacklustre and Sterling firms against the U.S dollar.
  • AN prices continue to remain stable as major fertiliser manufacturers continue to announce plant closures and curtailments across Europe, citing economic reasons.
  • Urea pricing will likely find a floor as spring demand emerges with a rebound now highly likely. 
  • AN price direction is unclear as premiums over alternative nitrogen sources in the UK increase. However, production curtailment will limit supply.
  • Liquid UAN prices are also relatively flat, with spring delivery available and nitrogen and nitrogen sulphur products available.
  • Phosphate prices remain unchanged week-on-week, but some regions have seen drops in DAP and TSP prices. Potash remains stable-weak at present.
  • Given the uncertainty in cropping plans this autumn and the impact this has on the planning of fertiliser requirements/timeliness of purchases. Concerns are growing around the timeliness of deliveries in spring for N-P-K and 0-P-K blends.
  • ForFarmers can offer wide delivery ranges through into spring 2024 on most products.

Performance Products

  • Are you ‘winter ready’ with your minerals? Supplying the correct vitamins, minerals and trace elements is important to optimise animal productivity, health and fertility.
  • Deficiency or excess of minerals can reduce performance and seriously affect animal health. Get in contact with your account manager to make sure rations are balanced efficiently. 
  • Microbalance RumiBest is a rumen modifier and new feed additive that will help your cows get the most from this year’s forages.
  • RumiBest stimulates rumen microbes and gut flora, resulting in a more efficient conversion of feed and/or forage into milk. This results in better utilisation of forage, more milk, and more fat.
  • Data from the 2023 European Harvest Analysis suggests that mycotoxin risk – particularly from small grains, straw, and forages like grass silage and maize silage – is higher than in previous years.
  • Microblance Detox is a combination of specially selected biologically active ingredients which bind, transform and degrade mycotoxins that dairy cows are most susceptible to.
  • Microbalance Detox is used to limit the uptake of mycotoxins by the cow in contaminated forage, helping to minimise the negative impact of mycotoxins. The product supports a cow’s natural defence system and helps maintains dry matter intake and milk production.


  • Do you have your feed supply covered as we head towards the busy Christmas period. 
  • We currently still have availability of our moist blends, Selcoplus and Amyplus. 
  • Both of our moist blends are manufactured to order and therefore you can rest assured that you will receive delivery in line with your feeding requirements when other products may be in short supply, even during the busy Christmas period. 
  • Ideal for driving intakes, our nutrient rich moist blends are a great option to help balance a variety of forage stocks, including those with low energy.
  • With two moist blend options to choose from, delivery is available nationwide in full 28t artic and 20t rigid tipped loads. 
  • Both spot and forward contracts are available. If you’re interested in pricing and availability, please contact a member of our team.


Cereals for 2024

  • With opportunities for spring cereals, pulses and arable mixes becoming limited, it’s advisable to cover your requirements.
  • Contact us to discuss available options.

Maize varieties for 2024

  • With the approval to use seed treatments on maize seed now agreed for 2024, have you considered your variety choice ? 
  • There are many options available, for all feeding requirements and growing areas.
  • Please look at the many maize varieties we have available.

Inoculants for 2024

  • There are offers available for next season grass, wholecrop and maize inoculants:
    • Ecosyl and Ecocool: buy 5 and get extra 1 FOC (buy 500tt and get 100tt FOC)
    • Sil-All 4x4:  buy 10 get extra 1 FOC (Buy 500tt and get 50tt FOC)
    • Advance: buy 9 get 1 extra 1 FOC (Buy 450tt and get 50tt FOC)
    • Pioneer: book before end of February for early season prices
  • Please look at the forage additives we offer and contact us to discuss your best options.

Weekly currency trend

£1.263 /$ - Mixed