For the Future of Farming

Commodity Market Report 16th January 2020

Currency

Exchange rate against the dollar dipped slightly earlier this week to below 1.30 but is back around the 1.30 level again today.

Soya

Prices have risen £1-2 in the last week. On Friday we saw the latest USDA report. The report increased global soya production by 1 million tonnes and increased end stock by 0.3 million tonnes to 96.7 million.

South American production figures were unchanged. Argentinian farmers are still not selling their beans, so this is keeping prices firm. Weather is favourable in South America so there could be larger crops on the way. Brazilian beans are much more competitive at this time of the year, which could limit the amount of Chinese purchases that we ultimately see. The Brazilian harvest is just kicking off, and early signs suggest decent yields and no signs of anything to worry about. 

China and US signed the phase 1 part of the trade deal yesterday. The U.S reduced tariffs on $120 billion in Chinese goods to 7.5% from 15%. In return China have agreed to $80 of agricultural purchases over the next 2 years. No less than $12.50 billion in the first year and no less than $19.50 billion in the second year.  There is still uncertainty how this will work and the actual quantity of soya beans that China will buy from the US.

Rapemeal, Distillers and Maize Gluten

  • Prices are mainly unchanged in the last week, prices did drop on Friday but firmed again. There has been a lot of rape covered for the summer and into next winter at current levels. The ratio of RSM against Soya remains on the higher side for old crop at around 70%, however from August onwards it comes down with ratios around 65%. There is still a shortage of rapeseed, and this may force crushers to switch away from rape to other oilseeds where supply is less of an issue, i.e soya/sunflower. This could tighten up the European RSM availability considerably towards the end of the marketing season keeping prices supported.
  • Prices in relation to distillers and maize gluten are unchanged this week.

Fibres

  • Soya Hulls prices are unchanged for old crop but with lower prices for June onwards.
  • Imported Sugarbeet values are down slightly and we now have prices for imported sugarbeet for next winter.

Grain, Maize, Wheatfeed, Biscuit meals and Bread

  • Both Wheat and Barley prices are up this week. Wheat by £6 and Barley by £3-4.  There is generally a lack of farmer selling. See below wheat futures chart.
  • Maize prices are up £2.
  • Biscuit meal values track the wheat futures market so are up £4.50 since last week.
Afbeelding: 16th Jan - Wheatfeed

Fertiliser

  • The urea market is still firming since mid-December and should continue to firm as we enter Q1.
  • Anticipation of a busy spring is building, the last week has seen the level of order taking increase day on day – January will soon be full for deliveries.
  • Current estimates suggest that even with an increased spring crop and a reduced fertiliser demand, buying is still significantly behind following this unfavourable autumn and end to 2019.
  • CF have released new terms last Friday with N down £20 p/t , Yara have followed suit and also dropped their Compound values.
  • Blends still £20p/t cheaper than compounds but there is talk of prices increasing next week as Europe weaks up after xmas and demand picks up.
  • I would stress this year more than ever that there is going to be considerable pressure on deliveries in the coming weeks, and ordering in good time to ensure the product is on farm when the farmer requires it is paramount.

Market Prices 16/01/20

All prices Ex Port, subject to change without notice, please ring for quotes.
 

Weekly Trend

  • £/$ 1.3058 - Sterling weaker
  • £/Euro 1.1699 - Sterling slightly weaker
     
Rapeseed Meal Ex Erith Ex Liverpool
Jan / Apr 190 POA
May / Jul 196 209
Aug / Oct 180 192
     
Hipro Soya Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Jan 302 301
Feb / Apr 301 301
May / Oct 290 290
Nov / Apr 295 293
     
Soya Hulls Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Jan / Apr 174 167
May / Oct 156 154
Nov / Apr 159 158
     
Whole Maize Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Jan / Apr 173 173
May / Sep 175 175
Oct / Apr 176 176
     
Wheatfeed Pellets (Midlands)  
Jan / Apr 144  
May / Sep 134  
     
Imp Sugarbeet Ex Portbury Ex Humber
Jan 180 181
Feb / Apr 183 185
     
Maize Destillers Ex Portbury Ex Liverpool
Jan / Apr 203 202
May / Oct 202 202
     
London Wheat Futures   Weekly Trend
Jan '20 151.45 Up
Mar '20 154.40 Up
May '20 156.00 Up
Jul '20 162.30 Up
Nov '20 164.75 Up
Jan '21 167.10 Up
Mar '21 170.00 Up

 

Red = Price Firmer
Green = Price Lower
Black = Price Same

The information contained herein is taken from sources we believe reliable, ForFarmers does not guarantee that it is accurate or complete and should be used for information purposes only. Market comments are the opinion of the author, and are not capable nor intended to create any legally binding obligations on either party.